Lecture
Technological singularity is a hypothetical moment, after which, according to supporters of this concept, technical progress will become so fast and complex that it will be inaccessible to understanding [1] [2] [3] , presumably the next after creating artificial intelligence and self-replicating machines, human integration with computers, or a significant spasmodic increase in the capabilities of the human brain due to biotechnology.
Vernor Vinge believes that the technological singularity may occur already around 2030 [4] [5] , while Raymond Kurzweil gives 2045 [6] . At the Singularity Summit in 2012, Stuart Armstrong collected expert evaluations, the median value of this sample was 2040 [7] .
Significant changes that will be technically possible with the advent of technological singularity are:
The idea of accelerating the growth of scientific knowledge for the first time can be found in the works of Friedrich Engels. In the middle of the XIX century, he wrote that science is moving forward in proportion to the mass of knowledge inherited by it from the previous generation. In his opinion, since its inception (XVI-XVII centuries), the development of science has increased in proportion to the square of the distance (in time) from its starting point. Similar ideas were expressed by V.I. Vernadsky, who wrote about the continuous strengthening of the pace of scientific creativity. According to some modern researchers, there is a " exponential law of science development ", manifested in a corresponding increase in the number of scientists, scientific organizations, publications and other indicators [8] [9] . However, it is important to note that exponential growth does not imply any singularity in the mathematical sense of this concept.
In 1965, Irving Goode wrote that at a certain point in time, when the most powerful intelligent machine could create another machine that would exceed the capabilities of people, an “intellectual explosion” could occur [10] .
A similar concept of "vertical progress" Strugatsky brothers set forth in the stories "Kid", "Waves extinguish the wind" and other works.
Close to the concept of singularity are the ideas of Stanislav Lem about the probable evolution of computers. In the most extreme form, the evolution of computers is described in the essay “Golem XIV lecture XLIII. About myself".
The term “singularity” is borrowed from mathematicians and astrophysicists who use it in describing cosmic black holes and in some theories of the beginning of the universe - a point with an infinitely large density and temperature and an infinitely small volume. A mathematical singularity (singularity) is a point of a function, the value of which tends to infinity, or other similar “interesting” points — features of a function.
In this context, the term “singularity” was first used in the mid-twentieth century by John von Neumann, referring to the mathematical, rather than astrophysical understanding of this word - the point beyond which extrapolation begins to give meaningless results (diverge). Vernor Vinge writes about this, to whom this term is usually attributed [11] . Raymond Kurzweil is actively involved in the scientific substantiation of the onset of singularity.
One of the fundamental open questions about singularity are questions about its existence, the time of occurrence and the rate of growth of technological changes. Extrapolation of some trends indicates that the singularity may occur by 2020; Perhaps this date should be revised and brought closer to 2018 or even 2016, if you rely on the most recent estimate of Dany Eder that the doubling time of computer power fell to 9 months by September 2002 - and it should be very sudden, which is typical of nature hyperexponential curve.
A number of scientists (among the most famous Russian, for example, A. V. Korotayev, one of the founders of the cliodynamics, and the biologist A. V. Markov) come out with a valid criticism of this concept, arguing that there will not be an explicit singularity point with an acute crisis. They argue that development is proceeding along an S-shaped (logistic) curve, and from the beginning of the 1970s braking began, that is, the World-System “point of singularity” has already passed during the modernization phase transition [12] ; in this case, the singularity point here means such a point on the development chart at which the speed is maximum (middle of the S-shaped curve) [13] .
In his article [14] , Korotaev examines and evaluates the notion of singularity in various fields (economic, technological, cultural, etc.). Since the hyperbole goes into infinity in a finite period of time, it is possible to calculate the moment of aggravation, in which a certain indicator of development takes on an infinite value. In real processes, never going to infinity is observed, but instead, the system undergoes a qualitative transformation (phase transition) before reaching the singularity point. Using the example of the economic development curve, which is already in the aggravation mode, Korotaev illustrates the nature of the movement of other hyperbolic curves in which singularity is expected. In his example, he proceeds from the assumption that the economy is closely connected with demography, and this dependence mainly determines the nature of the movement of the economic curve.
However, when analyzing the technological singularity, Korotaev does not take into account the fact that the development of advanced technologies relies primarily on scientific progress in the most developed countries, where it is determined not by population, but by education level and research activity. This means that the technological curve is dominated by a qualitative factor, and not quantitative, which is expressed through demographic indicators of all countries of the world. Thus, if the assessment of technological singularity is carried out based on the rate of demographic growth (the intensity of which is higher in less developed countries), then there is a strong bias due to the reduced influence of the quality factor. As a result, it is not entirely correct to analyze the development of technologies by analogy with the economic curve, and therefore Korotaev recognizes that in a transhuman context, the concept of technological singularity can be equated to the concept of a phase transition.
Technological singularity as a consequence of the development of nanotechnology is considered in the 2007 report of the Economic Policy Commission of the US Congress [15] . According to some opinions, adhering to the possibility of singularity, it should occur around 2030. If you extrapolate Moore's law, it turns out that at about the same time, the computing power of computers is compared to the human brain. Proponents of the theory of technological singularity believe that if a fundamentally different from human mind (postman) arises, the further fate of civilization cannot be predicted based on human logic.
In addition to the stories of Vernor Vinge, singularity is the central theme of the works of some other science fiction authors. Among them are William Gibson, Charles Stross, Karl Schroeder, Yuri Nikitin, Greg Egan, David Brin, Ian Banks, Neil Stevenson, Tony Ballantyne, Bruce Stirling, Dan Simmons, Damien Broderick, Frederick Brown, Yymets, Yde Yeker, Dan Simmons, Damien Broderick, Frederick Brown, Yymets, Yde Yeker, Dan Simmons, Damien Broderick, Frederick Brown, Yymery Yase Yek, Yama Banks, Frederick Brauns, Yyme Bros Sterling, Frederick Brauns , Peter watts. Ken McLeod, in his 1998 novel The Cassini Division, defines singularity as an ascension for nerds.
Theme singularity is often found in cyberpunk novels. For example, the recursively self-improving artificial intelligence "Winter Silence" in William Gibson's novel "Neuromant". The novel Metamorphoses of Higher Intelligence, published in 1994 on the Kuro5hin website, is dedicated to life after a singularity launched by artificial intelligence. A more dystopian view of singularity in Harlan Ellison’s short story “I have no mouth and I have to shout” (“I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream”). Other examples of the anti-utopian view include Charles Strauss’s Axlerando and Warren Ellis’s ongoing “newuniversal” comic strip. "All Dolls" (eng. Puppets All ) James Milne touches upon the emotional and moral problems of the Singularity. The problem of Contact in the era of technological singularity is discussed in the novel by Stanislav Lem “Fiasco” (1986), “False Blindness” by Peter Watts, and “Fuzzy Fragmentation” by Paul Di Filippo. Also, the problem of technological singularity is relevant in the east. A vivid example of this is the manga about the merger and almost limitless human consciousness and artificial intelligence “Ghost In The Shell”.
In cinema, the example of a film entirely devoted to technological singularity and the reaction of mankind to it is Excellence (film)
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Artificial Intelligence. Basics and history. Goals.
Terms: Artificial Intelligence. Basics and history. Goals.